By Ruth Ann Ruiz
The Post Newspaper Features Editor
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced its 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast Thursday. This year’s predictions from NOAA involve the highest numbers NOAA have ever forecast — 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one,” said Richard W. Spinrad, Ph.D., Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator.
“The best thing to do is get prepared and be prepared,” Spinrad said.
There are three factors contributing to NOAA’s predictions:
The warm temperature of the Atlantic, La Niña, an atmospheric condition occurring after the year of El Niño, which will lower the wind sheer over the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, and an African monsoon season that is expected to be high, according to officials with NOAA.
Because all three factors are in place in one year, NOAA is confident that this will be a very active tropical cyclone season with the potential for multiple major storms.
Officials at NOAA want to be sure people understand we don’t always get advance notice, so we need to prepare in advance.
“In the past 100 years, all Category 5 storms have been rapidly intensifying storms,” explained an official with NOAA. “The big ones may only have 50 hours’ notice.”
Hurricane season starts June 1, and we in this part of Texas are aware of rapidly intensifying storms. Hurricane Harvey was one such storm that didn’t give much advance notice.
Another factor NOAA pointed out is that 90% of fatalities occur from the water, and most are from rainfall with many from vehicles driven through flooding streets.
“Turn around don’t drown,” said a NOAA official.
NOAA officials stressed the importance of being prepared for hurricanes rather than being alarmed by them.
The Post Newspaper staff will provide hurricane preparedness tips throughout the summer.
