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By Bill Sargent and Mark MansuisWhat’s the goal for the United States and Israel attacking Iran?
First and foremost it’s to eliminate the Iran’s ability to field a nuclear weapon. Second, it’s to stop Iran’s reign of terror against its neighbors, especially Israel.
Iran has been a sponsor of terror across the globe. It uses proxy groups like Hamas [in Gaza], Hezbollah [in Lebanon], and the Houthis [in Yemen] to attack Israel and shipping in international waters like the Red Sea.
Can you imagine what the Islamic radicals who run the country would do if they had a nuclear weapon at their disposal? They have called for the death to Israel and to the United States. Recently, they launched a ballistic missile at the American airfield on Deigo Garcia (about 2,400 miles away). This means they have the ability to not only strike Israel but also Turkey, Romania, Hungary, Greece, Austria, Germany, Italy, and perhaps France, Spain, and England. It’s in the national interest of these nations to join in the effort to keep Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon. But some of them have distanced themselves from engagement; even going so far as to prohibit the U.S. military from using their airspace, and even their joint U.S. bases [e.g., Spain, France, Italy] in efforts to stop the Iranian regime’s lust for a nuclear power. Some allies they are!
What have the United States and Israel done to address the threat from Iran?
First, the U.S. Navy and Airforce, along with aircraft from Israel, have devastated the top three tiers of Iran’s radical leadership; have leveled Iran’s military and defensive capabilities; and have wiped out its defense industrial base [its ability to rebuild].
Additionally, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports; stopping its importation of all goods other than humanitarian supplies. As KT McFarland — the former deputy national security advisor to Donald Trump during his first term – said, “The Iranians thought, ‘Ha, we’ll close the Strait of Hormuz and that will put such enormous political pressure on President Trum because of high gasoline prices… that Trump will agree to anything.’ “ Instead, McFarland points out the U.S. blockade is squeezing Iran from multiple directions; halting both imports and exports.
She says that with no imports coming in Iran is facing a consumer economic crisis and massive inflation. With nothing going out, there not making any money from their oil. Additionally, in the oil business, the flow of the product must be kept flowing (wells to pipelines, pipelines to ships) or their oil wells and pipelines start to jam up. The inability to load tankers could quickly damage Iran’s production capacity. McFarland claims within 13 days Iran’s oil infrastructure will start to collapse.
What is the U.S. doing in the Strait of Hormuz?
First, the U.S. Navy is using minesweepers and underwater drones to clear the Strait of Iranian mines. This will expand the safe shipping lanes and allow the transit of oil tankers.
Second, the they are tracking all shipping into and out of Iranian ports. While the Iranians are attempting to use “ghost ships” to confuse and avoid the U.S. blockade, the Strait is so narrow that it isn’t difficult to detect ships using Iranian ports.
All if this is to force Iran to the negotiating table. Financial ruin faces the Iranian Regime within weeks if not days. “They’ve got maybe a week or two weeks.” McFarland said. “It’s a half-billion dollars a day. They can’t survive like that,” she concluded.
In response to the economic pressure being applied by the Trump administration, Iran has removed its threats to shipping in the Strait, but that hasn’t eliminated the U.S. blockade. Ships going to and from Iran will still be blocked and turned back by the U.S. Navy until Iran gives up its ambition to become a nuclear power.
The long-term outcome of Donald Trump’s actions against Iran is pretty clear: No Nukes and Stop Terrorism. The outstanding question is who is really in charge in Iran and whether they are willing to fall upon their sword for their radical beliefs or embrace reality. Eventually, they will either need to give up their nuclear intentions and rejoin the world of nations or become a third-rate country [a sad state of affairs for a once prospering nation].
