By Bill Sargent and Mark Mansuis
This year’s mid-term election brings the Congressional and Senate races into full focus. The Republicans currently control the House of Representatives by a mere four seats and the Senate by three or four seats with one Senator claiming Republican affiliation while rarely acting like one. The 2026 election might turn on current economic circumstances. In the past, inflationary pressures, especially with gas prices, carry predictable negative effects against those in power. Historic patterns usually go against the party in power.
Intentional government actions in 2022 shattered the U.S. economy through high inflation and stunted growth. The inflation rate calculated using the 1979 formula, came in above 20%. It wasn’t pretty. With gasoline prices having a major influence on voters, the Biden Administration attempted to lower prices by depleting U.S. strategic crude reserves. It didn’t work, and twenty-two Democrat house members lost their seats.
Fast-forward to today. Inflation rose into the mid 3% range in March ignited by higher crude oil prices because of the “No More Nuclear Weapons” Iranian conflict. Is 2022 going repeat itself; will this derail Trump’s economic plans? Or is there a difference between the two?
Understanding inflation may have the answer. It’s a simple ratio: The total money supply divided by the total of goods and services. In 2022, Biden drove huge spending bills through Congress totaling in the trillions. With no connection to productivity, the value of the dollar sank (Inflation = More money needed to buy less). The massive spending increases required the printing of more currency; thereby reducing the value of each dollar.
With the exception of defense spending, Trump has limited spending with a conscience effort to eliminate billions in waste, fraud, and abuse. Meanwhile America is producing record levels of crude oil and natural gas. Once the world conflict ends, crude prices will fall precipitously. Crude should revert to the pre-war price under $70 per barrel. With the possibility of a solution of the Iran conflict, prices are already starting to fall. But all of this is predicated on (1) getting a deal that can be implemented (not just words and promises), and (2) fully opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels while banning Iran from charging a “toll” or passage.
Like it or not, elections are driven heavily on the current economic climate and campaign expenditures and promises (some of which will never be kept). Some believe Democrats are going to win; even a landslide win. This would be an egregious outcome. If they gain majorities in Congress, Democrats are promising to pack the courts, create states from known territories (and Washington, DC) which support their agenda, open the immigration flood gates, and returning America to the failed practices found during the Biden Administration.
In the midst of this, there is “narrative polling” which isn’t based on truth but which skews the results in an effort to impact the voting public. Example: one contends Trump’s disapproval is 65%. Only 30% of the poll’s survey included people who actually voted in a presidential election. Another once-respected poll found Democrats up by 14% in a generic Congressional race. A slightly left leaning pollster had it tied. A CNN poll had Democrats up 2 points. Meanwhile real polls place Trump’s approval between mid-to-upper 40s, similar to Obama in his second term. Disingenuous reporting from narrative polls and news outlets is running rampant.
The Democrats want to take back control and never lose again. They want to shut down the Trump agenda by any means possible. They understand a successful economy that lifts all workers is a threat to their succeeding. They can’t tolerate Trump and will do anything in their power to derail him and to place whatever roadblocks they can to stop him.
For decades the Democrats have gerrymandered Congressional district in blue states. There aren’t Republican Congressional seats in New England while about 40% of the population supports conservative policies. The Republicans finally woke up last year and begin doing seriously gerrymandering in red states. The Democrat left went ballistic claiming Republicans seek to unfairly control the Federal Government. The reality is the Republicans decided to play the same game the Democrats have been doing for decades. The district changes in red states could achieve 10-20 new Republican seats. But if this is going to happen it will depend upon whether the Republican base actually gets out and votes.
American Freedom is on the ballot! The destructive policies of the Democrat left under Biden, if repeated, could permanently disable our freedoms and our economy. Do you remember what they did in response to the Chinese-origin COVID virus? They assumed power and shut down people’s freedoms. So, take seriously the coming midterm elections in November. Your lives and freedoms will be at stake.
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Feedback from a former administrator of the Defense Production Act living in Virginia:
I would only say on polling; we are never shown the actual wording of the questions asked. We all know how biased the content of the question can be.
Comment from a former intelligence community analyst living in Tidewater Virginia:
The column looks to be pretty well written, so I only have a few “for what it’s worth” comments. I’m looking at gas prices because every time we go to a gas station, we see the outrageous price of gas. When we go to fill up our
26 gallon tank, it really hurts at $4 a gallon. If our country is truly “energy independent” why are the prices so high? I’ve not seen substantive Administration efforts to explain to the average Americans are paying $4 or more for a gallon of gas. Is it because oil companies are greedy or is part of this caused by summer blends that are more expensive to produce. This is a big failing of the Republican messaging apparatus. Unless gas prices decline precipitously, the Republicans are going to take the blame in the mid-terms. Not that the democrats can do any better, but the Republicans will still take the hit. I do think that the democrats further shift to the left will eventually come back to bite them. This wacko democrat nominee in Maine is a textbook example.
Comments from a former Congressional Chief of Staff living in Arizona:
The article made a number of salient points but may have overlooked the obvious. For example, “Gerrymandered Congressional districts” made the point that the “district changes in red states could achieve 10-20 new Republican seats. But if this is going to happen will depend upon whether the Republican base actually gets out and votes.” The word “but” connects to the wrong conclusion. While it is true that successful elections do “depend upon whether the Republican base actually gets out and votes.” However, it’s been painfully true that the “RESULTS” of who wins and who loses are actually determined by who counts the votes AFTER the election! A Case in point. In 1966, I worked for a State Senate candidate in Chicago. When the general election polls closed, Cook County Sheriff Joe Woods had his deputies drive the actual ballot boxes from voting areas in the Collar County around in Sheriff vehicles until the voting results from all of the 50 City wards had been reported. He then had his deputies deliver the ballot boxes they had been guarding to be counted. This ensured that votes from Cook County couldn’t be added to make up any votes the Democrats lacked. The results was a historical victory for several Republicans. Vote counting was the key to that election! Mayor Daily was forced to guess how many votes he needed to change the outcome in favor of the Democrats. He guessed wrongly! We are seeing similar things happening in California right now, unfortunately they know how many votes are needed in order to swing the election! Look at what happened in Los Angles.
The article states that “the 2026 election might turn on current economic circumstances … especially with gas prices, carry predictable negative effects against those in power.” While it’s true that “historic patterns usually go against the party in power” this time we aren’t dealing with a President Buh but with a President who actually did what he promised to do. Republican candidates need to focus on what the current administration has already done that benefits the voter. Examples: The “Big Beautiful Bill” that was pushed by President Trump and the Republicans in Congress brought us NO tax on tips, No tax on overtime, Limited taxation on Social Security. Additionally, shutting down the border and the invasion of illegal immigration. Doing this should easily offset any negatives from increases in gas prices campaign Ads against them! Especially when they make it clear that ALL Democrats voted against the measures designed to help the average American! The article mentioned that the President “has limited spending with a conscience effort to eliminate billions in waste, fraud, and abuse.” It’s true that billions of dollars have been identified in waste, fraud, and abuse in federal programs and “frequently discussed in federal legislation, agency guidelines, and whistleblower resources to protect taxpayer dollars.” Republican incumbents can focus on how they voted to reduce federal budgets. Challengers can focus on the “democrat incumbent” voting against key legislation to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse!
The article stated that, “America is producing record levels of crude oil and natural gas.” But claims “Once the world conflict ends, crude prices will fall precipitously… But all of this is predicated on (1) getting a deal that can be implemented (not just words and promises), and (2) opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels.” Really? Is that the “real” issue? According to US Energy Information, “The United States is producing more crude oil and natural gas than any other country in history, setting consecutive annual extraction records.” Could American’s lack of oil refineries and the absence of new ones being built in recent years (i.e., the lack of refining capacity) also be a major factor in why gas prices are higher? Could “special blends” cause higher prices also be a factor?
What about taxes on gas? U.S. Energy Information Agency says that “as of 2026, state-level taxes and fees on gasoline average 33.5 cents per gallon across the United States (while Texas only charges 20 cents per gallon!). When combined with the fixed 18.4 cents per gallon federal gas tax, the American drivers pay an average of roughly 52 cents in total taxes for every gallon.” In California, however, drivers pay 63.4 cents per gallon plus a 2.25% sales tax, what a mess! At the same time some efforts are being made to reduce federal gas taxes in the short-term for truckers. Perhaps this will help keep down prices for the commodities we all rely upon.
Hope you find this response helpful.
Feedback from a former administrator of the Defense Production Act living in Virginia:
I would only say on polling; we are never shown the actual wording of the questions asked. We all know how biased the content of the question can be.
Comment from a former intelligence community analyst living in Tidewater Virginia:
The column looks to be pretty well written, so I only have a few “for what it’s worth” comments. I’m looking at gas prices because every time we go to a gas station, we see the outrageous price of gas. When we go to fill up our
26 gallon tank, it really hurts at $4 a gallon. If our country is truly “energy independent” why are the prices so high? I’ve not seen substantive Administration efforts to explain to the average Americans are paying $4 or more for a gallon of gas. Is it because oil companies are greedy or is part of this caused by summer blends that are more expensive to produce. This is a big failing of the Republican messaging apparatus. Unless gas prices decline precipitously, the Republicans are going to take the blame in the mid-terms. Not that the democrats can do any better, but the Republicans will still take the hit. I do think that the democrats further shift to the left will eventually come back to bite them. This wacko democrat nominee in Maine is a textbook example.
Comments from a former Congressional Chief of Staff living in Arizona:
The article made a number of salient points but may have overlooked the obvious. For example, “Gerrymandered Congressional districts” made the point that the “district changes in red states could achieve 10-20 new Republican seats. But if this is going to happen will depend upon whether the Republican base actually gets out and votes.” The word “but” connects to the wrong conclusion. While it is true that successful elections do “depend upon whether the Republican base actually gets out and votes.” However, it’s been painfully true that the “RESULTS” of who wins and who loses are actually determined by who counts the votes AFTER the election! A Case in point. In 1966, I worked for a State Senate candidate in Chicago. When the general election polls closed, Cook County Sheriff Joe Woods had his deputies drive the actual ballot boxes from voting areas in the Collar County around in Sheriff vehicles until the voting results from all of the 50 City wards had been reported. He then had his deputies deliver the ballot boxes they had been guarding to be counted. This ensured that votes from Cook County couldn’t be added to make up any votes the Democrats lacked. The results was a historical victory for several Republicans. Vote counting was the key to that election! Mayor Daily was forced to guess how many votes he needed to change the outcome in favor of the Democrats. He guessed wrongly! We are seeing similar things happening in California right now, unfortunately they know how many votes are needed in order to swing the election! Look at what happened in Los Angles.
The article states that “the 2026 election might turn on current economic circumstances … especially with gas prices, carry predictable negative effects against those in power.” While it’s true that “historic patterns usually go against the party in power” this time we aren’t dealing with a President Buh but with a President who actually did what he promised to do. Republican candidates need to focus on what the current administration has already done that benefits the voter. Examples: The “Big Beautiful Bill” that was pushed by President Trump and the Republicans in Congress brought us NO tax on tips, No tax on overtime, Limited taxation on Social Security. Additionally, shutting down the border and the invasion of illegal immigration. Doing this should easily offset any negatives from increases in gas prices campaign Ads against them! Especially when they make it clear that ALL Democrats voted against the measures designed to help the average American! The article mentioned that the President “has limited spending with a conscience effort to eliminate billions in waste, fraud, and abuse.” It’s true that billions of dollars have been identified in waste, fraud, and abuse in federal programs and “frequently discussed in federal legislation, agency guidelines, and whistleblower resources to protect taxpayer dollars.” Republican incumbents can focus on how they voted to reduce federal budgets. Challengers can focus on the “democrat incumbent” voting against key legislation to reduce waste, fraud, and abuse!
The article stated that, “America is producing record levels of crude oil and natural gas.” But claims “Once the world conflict ends, crude prices will fall precipitously… But all of this is predicated on (1) getting a deal that can be implemented (not just words and promises), and (2) opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels.” Really? Is that the “real” issue? According to US Energy Information, “The United States is producing more crude oil and natural gas than any other country in history, setting consecutive annual extraction records.” Could American’s lack of oil refineries and the absence of new ones being built in recent years (i.e., the lack of refining capacity) also be a major factor in why gas prices are higher? Could “special blends” cause higher prices also be a factor?
What about taxes on gas? U.S. Energy Information Agency says that “as of 2026, state-level taxes and fees on gasoline average 33.5 cents per gallon across the United States (while Texas only charges 20 cents per gallon!). When combined with the fixed 18.4 cents per gallon federal gas tax, the American drivers pay an average of roughly 52 cents in total taxes for every gallon.” In California, however, drivers pay 63.4 cents per gallon plus a 2.25% sales tax, what a mess! At the same time some efforts are being made to reduce federal gas taxes in the short-term for truckers. Perhaps this will help keep down prices for the commodities we all rely upon.
